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Published Articles >> Table of Contents >> Abstract
11th IEEE International Software Metrics Symposium (METRICS'05)
p. 4
Assessing Uncertainty of Software Development Effort Estimates: The Learning from Outcome Feedback
Tanja Gruschke, University of Oslo
Magne Jørgensen, Simula Research Laboratory
Full Article Text:
 
DOI Bookmark: http://doi.ieeecomputersociety.org/10.1109/METRICS.2005.13
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| Abstract |
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To enable properly sized software projects budgets and
plans it is important to be able to assess the uncertainty of
the estimates of most likely effort required to complete the
projects. Previous studies show that software professionals
tend to be too optimistic about the uncertainty of their effort
estimates. This paper reports the results from a preliminary
study on the role of outcome feedback in the learning
process on effort estimation uncertainty assessment.
Software developers were given repeated and immediate
outcome feedback, i.e. feedback about the discrepancy
between the estimated most likely effort and the actual
effort, for the purpose of investigating how much, and
how, they improve (learn). We found that a necessary
condition for improvement of uncertainty assessments of
effort estimates may be the use of explicitly formulated
uncertainty assessment strategies. By contrast, intuition-based
uncertainty assessment strategies may lead to no or
little learning.
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 Additional Information
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Citation:
Tanja Gruschke, Magne Jørgensen,
"Assessing Uncertainty of Software Development Effort Estimates: The Learning from Outcome Feedback,"
metrics,
p. 4,
11th IEEE International Software Metrics Symposium (METRICS'05),
2005
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